in China , Hong Kong ,
With the expected defeat of the Electoral Reform Package, many are claiming the HK Govt and CCP are in uncharted territory/uncharted waters. Not really, beyond the FUBAR antics of the pro-CCP loyalist legislators after the division bell rang, CY has already tipped that the post-2005 Electoral Reform Package plan has been put in place. The CCP doesn't have a very broad playbook, so it's not unexpected that CY will sound a bit now like Bowtie did then. "Blame the pan-dems for everything, and I mean everything that's ever gone wrong in HK including the FUBAR loyalist walkout. Call them obstructionist. Say you'll be focussing on livelihood issues and economic development. Call the pan-dems obstructionist some more and unpatriotic. Rinse. Repeat."
The appearance of waves of radical centrist commentators bemoaning the inability to reach a compromise is also expected. "Why weren't the 'moderates' allowed to have their way? The CCP was so moderate for engaging in dialogue and negotiations. Thank goodness, HK still has the ICAC to keep us free of electoral corruption." Any compromise, even if one side surrenders nothing and the other is asked to surrender everything is quite rational and reasonable and oh so very moderate. It's all BS, but some political/marketing guru told the CCP loyalists to try to win the public opinion of HK's middle ground.
Given the CCP's absolute intransigence on compromise and rejection of every pan-dem modification, no matter how meagre, it's expected that Hong Kong would split into 3 camps. The first are the loyalists. They'll follow Ip Kwok-him out of the LegCo chamber without question and vote for his stupidity in the ballot box in 2016. The second are the opponents of the reform legislation. I believe the Liaison Office has been working hard to divide and conquer this segment with the rise of some 'localist' groups that are quite well kitted out and who spend most of their time attacking the pan-dems instead of the policymakers that have created the situations these 'localists' claim to be interested in. The third group are 'the middle'. This can be divided into two groups. Surrender monkeys, who were willing to accept the Electoral Reform Package because the CCP said it was the best they could get and surrender monkeys accept being powerless and take what's put on their plate and are grateful like good children. The second group are the parasitic optimists. They believe they'll get rich if they stick close to The Party.
The road forward will see The Party try to keep the surrender monkeys servile yet content with the crumbs placed on their plates and launch enough white elephant projects and investment schemes/scams to keep the parasitic optimists fixated on the belief that one more pull on the slot machine will make them wealthy. The important thing to note is that real wealth and societal security must be withheld, as the lack of financial and societal security for the masses is one of the keystones of Maoism to keep the masses agitated and uncertain. So Team CronY will push the Innovation & Technology Bureau for the CronY iProA through the LegCo FinComm while withdrawing actual social welfare bills to blackmail the pan-dems while the loyalist press corpse will bash the pan-dems for being obstructionist and the zombie press corpse will wonder why the pan-dem FinComm isn't taking up the social welfare bills instead of wasting time on the ITB.
So even if the White Elephant and CronY projects have changed, the basic plot remains the same. 2015 is Back to the Future 2005.
ADDENDUM 19 June 2015 3:42pm
Shortly after the original publishing of this, CY Leung spoke for a 2nd time in 2 days to the public and announced that he'd change the agenda for the FinComm and set the ITB to the side in favour of more grassroots livelihood issues. Stay tuned to see what really ends up on the agenda when the FinComm meets.
UPDATE 19 June 2015 6:20pm
Didn't take long for zombie press corpse to prove me right.
Chief Executive CY Leung said he would bring a series of economic initiatives to lawmakers next week, and called for their support.
Democratic lawmakers had been filibustering all budget items during the city's pro-democracy protests, holding up funding for a variety of slated projects. Leung said that a continuation of such actions would hurt the community.
"It's time for all of us to move on," Leung told reporters. "We should try to forge consensus on various economic and livelihood issues."